{"id":7205,"date":"2025-05-01T15:28:47","date_gmt":"2025-05-01T15:28:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ghb.cdj.mybluehost.me\/?p=7205"},"modified":"2025-05-01T15:28:47","modified_gmt":"2025-05-01T15:28:47","slug":"will-the-new-trump-administration-act-on-tigray","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/woyenmedia.com\/?p=7205","title":{"rendered":"Will the new Trump administration act on Tigray?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe title=\"Trump\u2019s Indictment &amp; Justice for Tigray Conflict Victims\" width=\"788\" height=\"443\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/A8fMQA7xnwg?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">For an indication of what the second coming of President Donald Trump might mean for Tigray, Ethiopia, and Africa, we can look back to how the US government he led reacted to the outbreak of the Tigray war in late 2020, months before his controversial term ended.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">The Trump administration, instead of taking punitive action against Addis Ababa, chose instead to endorse the \u201claw enforcement\u201d framing chosen by the Ethiopian government, with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Tibor Nagy, Assistant Secretary of State for Africa, and Mike Raynor, Ambassador to Ethiopia, giving a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/2017-2021.state.gov\/briefing-with-assistant-secretary-for-african-affairs-tibor-p-nagy-and-u-s-ambassador-to-ethiopia-michael-a-raynor-on-the-situation-in-ethiopias-tigray-region\/\">press conference<\/a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/SecPompeo\/status\/1328721926643195907?prefetchTimestamp=1734018816565\">social media posts<\/a>&nbsp;to offer tacit support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Shockingly, both provided a justification for the entry of Eritrea to the war by accusing the TPLF of \u201cinternationalizing the conflict\u201d when defensive action was taken by Tigray\u2019s government in response to the Eritrean military\u2019s incursion into the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">This made little strategic sense. When Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, also TPLF leader, governed Ethiopia for three decades, the region was relatively peaceful. US interests were secured through the anti-terror partnerships with Ethiopia, and Ethiopian forces\u2014many of them Tigrayan fighters turned soldiers\u2014participated in peacekeeping missions in locations including Rwanda, Sudan, Somalia, and Liberia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"427\" src=\"https:\/\/woyenmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-31-1024x427.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7206\" srcset=\"https:\/\/woyenmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-31-1024x427.png 1024w, https:\/\/woyenmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-31-300x125.png 300w, https:\/\/woyenmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-31-768x320.png 768w, https:\/\/woyenmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-31-150x63.png 150w, https:\/\/woyenmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-31-450x188.png 450w, https:\/\/woyenmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-31.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Genocide Question<\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Despite video evidence, the entry of Eritrean forces into Tigray was denied by both the Eritrean and Ethiopian authorities, including Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. There was no statement by the US government against an incursion that ultimately, in my opinion, amounted to genocide. &nbsp;For Tigrayan-Americans, this was upsetting, to say the least.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Backing my view on the atrocities is the New Lines Institute&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/newlinesinstitute.org\/rules-based-international-order\/genocide-in-tigray-serious-breaches-of-international-law-in-the-tigray-conflict-ethiopia-and-paths-to-accountability-2\/\">report&nbsp;<\/a>that finds the Ethiopian National Defense Forces, the Eritrean Defense Forces, and the Amhara Fano, committed genocide in Tigray. A State Department report that may have found that \u201cacts of genocide\u201d were committed didn\u2019t see the light of day. This could be an area where President Trump demonstrates his departure from the previous administrations by releasing it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">It is uncertain, however, whether Trump\u2019s team would do so. After all, his administration\u2019s strategic focus on&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/time.com\/7173560\/what-trumps-win-means-for-the-world-ukraine-gaza-china-foreign-policy\/\">peace through strength<\/a>&nbsp;and his transactional diplomacy might not prioritize&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pbs.org\/newshour\/world\/trump-promises-to-bring-lasting-peace-to-a-tumultuous-middle-east-but-fixing-it-wont-be-easy\">human rights<\/a>issues, unless they align with broader US interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">This also means that his administration might be more willing to overlook Eritrea\u2019s destabilizing actions if it serves US&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/er.usembassy.gov\/president-donald-j-trumps-africa-strategy-advances-prosperity-security-and-stability\/\">strategic interests<\/a>, particularly in countering Chinese and Russian influence. However, this could lead to increased instability in the region, affecting countries like Ethiopia, Sudan and Somalia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>COHA Implementation<\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">On 3 November 2022, a permanent Cessation of Hostilities&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.peaceau.org\/uploads\/joint-statement-gov-fdre-tplf-11-02-2022-19-38-33.pdf\">Agreement<\/a>&nbsp;(COHA) was signed between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF, brokered by the African Union, Kenya, South Africa, and the US. The COHA is holding up in terms of stopping the hostilities, but the implementation is far from satisfactory and the violence\u2014including against women, the destruction of hospitals, schools and academic institutions, and the displacement of millions of people\u2014has not been addressed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Over 40 percent of Tigray is still under the occupation of the Amhara Fano and Eritrean forces, and, as a result, millions have been languishing in IDP camps for over four years. Sadly, neither the Ethiopian government nor the African Union have had the courage to call explicitly for Eritrean forces to leave the territories they occupy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Although I was among those to&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ethiopia-insight.com\/2022\/01\/22\/the-us-is-pushing-for-peace-in-ethiopia-but-it-needs-to-do-more\/\">criticize<\/a>&nbsp;their initial approach, the Biden administration eventually played an admirable role in bringing peace. Immediately after Biden came to office, he asked Senator Chris Coons and diplomat Jeffrey Feltman to address the issue. But the key appointment was one of Feltman\u2019s successors as envoy to the region, Mike Hammer. He shuttled between Ethiopia and foreign capitals to help find a resolution to the conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Now, a renewed similarly assertive effort is needed by the Trump administration to see that the COHA is implemented.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Recognition President<\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Another major impact from the Trump administration could be its attitude towards the self-declared state of Somaliland. A&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.semafor.com\/article\/12\/10\/2024\/somaliland-trump-white-house-looks-set-to-recognize-the-region\">recent<\/a>&nbsp;article&nbsp;in Semafor&nbsp;focused on the growing expectation in Washington that the Trump administration will formally recognize Somaliland, a self-governing region within Somalia, as a state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">This could have significant implications on Tigrayan aspirations for Tigray to become an independent country. The most obvious one is precedent. Recognition could embolden Tigray\u2019s politicians to galvanize support for Tigray\u2019s independence, both domestically and internationally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Such a bold move would&nbsp;<a href=\"file:\/\/\/C:\/Users\/gebregz\/Dropbox\/Commentaries\/Letters\/Ethiopia%20Insight\/(https:\/somalilandreporter.com\/2024\/12\/12\/trump-regime-may-soon-recognize-somaliland\">signal to the world that the US is open to recognizing<\/a>&nbsp;new states based on self-determination, potentially encouraging others to follow suit. According to Semafor, support for Somaliland\u2019s independence has grown among Republican US-Africa policy leaders, right-leaning think tanks, and likely Africa advisors of Trump\u2019s incoming White House.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Additionally, while the recognition of Somaliland could destabilize the Horn of Africa because of Mogadishu\u2019s outrage at the move, it might also force regional powers to reconsider their positions on Tigray.&nbsp;<a href=\"file:\/\/\/C:\/Users\/gebregz\/Dropbox\/Commentaries\/Letters\/Ethiopia%20Insight\/(https:\/www.semafor.com\/article\/12\/10\/2024\/somaliland-trump-white-house-looks-set-to-recognize-the-region%3f\">Ethiopia, in particular<\/a>, might face increased pressure to negotiate with Tigray and address demands for autonomy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Meanwhile, the success of Somaliland\u2019s democratic process and governance could serve as a model for Tigray, strengthening its case for independence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Africa Implications<\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Further afield, Trump\u2019s return to the presidency could bring a more transactional and security-focused approach to the Horn of Africa, potentially deprioritizing human rights and democracy, in favor of economic and strategic interests. This would neither serve the US national interest nor the stability of the region, home to millions of African Americans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">The region should anticipate and prepare for shifts in diplomatic engagement and increased competition with China and Russia. With regards to the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.understandingwar.org\/backgrounder\/africa-file-october-17-2024-egypt-eritrea-somalia-summit-challenges-tigray-peace\">impasse<\/a>&nbsp;between Egypt and Ethiopia in Somalia, Trump\u2019s focus may be on securing US interests, such as countering Chinese influence and ensuring regional stability. He might support Egypt\u2019s stance on the GERD if it aligns with US goals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">The administration will likely emphasize&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/blogs\/africasource\/what-africa-can-expect-under-a-second-trump-administration-a-focus-on-the-numbers\">bilateral trade<\/a>&nbsp;agreements and economic partnerships, potentially sidelining broader multilateral initiatives. This could impact how the US engages with regional organizations like the African Union.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Just Concerns<\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Trump\u2019s administration has promulgated a protectionist and America-first approach. While he has not made specific statements about the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) which the Biden Administration has&nbsp;<a href=\"file:\/\/\/C:\/Users\/gebregz\/Dropbox\/Commentaries\/Letters\/Ethiopia%20Insight\/U.S.%20Terminates%20AGOA%20Trade%20Preference%20Program%20for%20Ethiopia,%20Mali%20and%20Guinea%20|%20United%20States%20Trade%20Representative\">terminated<\/a>&nbsp;as punitive action against the Ethiopian government, there is widespread concern among Ethiopian diaspora that he might renew the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theafricareport.com\/367559\/should-africa-fear-a-trump-effect-on-its-currencies\/\">act<\/a>when it is due for renewal in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">There also could be a stronger focus on counterterrorism and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/er.usembassy.gov\/president-donald-j-trumps-africa-strategy-advances-prosperity-security-and-stability\">security<\/a>, given Trump\u2019s previous emphasis on combating radical Islamic terrorism. This might lead to increased military cooperation and support for counterterrorism efforts in the region. Unless a careful consideration of new allies is made, this might harm peace and justice efforts in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Trump\u2019s previous administration was&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/blog\/icc-trump-administration-and-africa\">critical<\/a>&nbsp;of the International Criminal Court (ICC) and even imposed sanctions on its officials. Given this stance, he might take a punitive approach towards South Africa for its role in bringing&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bakerinstitute.org\/research\/israeli-settlements-legal-status-political-reality\">Israel<\/a>&nbsp;to the ICC, potentially affecting long-term diplomatic relations with a leading African state. This would dampen the hope that the case of Tigray genocide would be considered by the ICC through referral by a member state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>More of the Same?<\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Generally, US policy towards Africa hasn\u2019t changed much over the decades. Even at a time when there were high hopes that President Barack Obama, a US leader with African roots, would somehow fundamentally elevate the continent\u2019s importance in Washington, US policy did not stray far from traditional orthodoxy toward Africa;&nbsp;i.e., braying&nbsp;about democracy and human rights while also pursuing national security interests that often ran contrary to its stated values.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Despite&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/briefing-room\/speeches-remarks\/2022\/12\/15\/remarks-by-president-biden-at-the-u-s-africa-summit-leaders-session-on-partnering-on-the-african-unions-agenda-2063\/\">promises<\/a>&nbsp;from the Biden administration to elevate the collective voices of Africans in global decision making and institutions, the White House has continued to fall short of its rhetoric. Africans still hold no seat at the UN Security Council, two years after Biden first&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/briefing-room\/speeches-remarks\/2022\/09\/21\/remarks-by-president-biden-before-the-77th-session-of-the-united-nations-general-assembly\/\">agreed<\/a>&nbsp;to it, while the US-led response to climate change, development finance, and great power competition all seem to continue to favor the Global North. If there is to be any shift, it would be to curb any influences by China and Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">This overpromising and under delivering reinforces the well-established reputation that Washington is an inherently unreliable\u2014and hypocritical\u2014partner. There is little reason to think that the second Trump administration will be any different, but its unpredictable nature provides room for some hope.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Regardless, it is essential that the incoming administration takes the peace and stability of the Horn of Africa seriously, as continuing instability in Tigray and more attacks on its people, who have a long history and are dependable allies, will not be without consequences for the wider region.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For an indication of what the second coming of President Donald Trump might mean for Tigray, Ethiopia, and Africa, we can look back to how the US government he led reacted to the outbreak of the Tigray war in late 2020, months before his controversial term ended. The Trump administration, instead of taking punitive action<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7209,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"video","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"nf_dc_page":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-7205","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-video","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-videos","8":"post_format-post-format-video"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Will the new Trump administration act on Tigray? - Woyen Gazeta<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/woyenmedia.com\/?p=7205\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Will the new Trump administration act on Tigray? - Woyen Gazeta\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"For an indication of what the second coming of President Donald Trump might mean for Tigray, Ethiopia, and Africa, we can look back to how the US government he led reacted to the outbreak of the Tigray war in late 2020, months before his controversial term ended. 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- Woyen Gazeta","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/woyenmedia.com\/?p=7205","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Will the new Trump administration act on Tigray? - Woyen Gazeta","og_description":"For an indication of what the second coming of President Donald Trump might mean for Tigray, Ethiopia, and Africa, we can look back to how the US government he led reacted to the outbreak of the Tigray war in late 2020, months before his controversial term ended. 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